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According to the "531" policy, in order to control the total output of subsidies, the number of projects eligible for state subsidies will only decrease in the future.
At the beginning of 2019, all people concerned about the development of the photovoltaic industry are waiting for the policy. Last week, the national development and reform commission (NDRC) and the national energy administration (nea) issued the "notice on actively promoting the work of wind power and photovoltaic power generation online without subsidies" (hereinafter referred to as the "notice"), announcing that photovoltaic power generation will officially enter the era of affordable Internet.
It is conceivable that in the next few years, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will continue to decline, directly forming a strong competitiveness against traditional coal power, and even no longer rely on policies, but gradually eliminate coal power in the power market through its own energy value. Therefore, 2019 is bound to be an important node for the photovoltaic industry.
At the same time, access to affordable Internet brings challenges, and unsubsidized Internet brings pressure. The future potential of photovoltaic power generation is undeniable, but for the current photovoltaic enterprises, they may be the most concerned about: the advent of the era of no subsidies, the photovoltaic industry cake how much?
Unsubsidized programs will become mainstream
Through the notice, we can probably see the following trends in 2019:
1. As the "first year without subsidies", in 2019, a large number of unsubsidized projects will appear and become the backbone of newly installed machines.
2. The "non-technical cost" represented by land taxes and fees is expected to decline, clearing the way for affordable Internet access.
3. Unsubsidized projects will be able to increase revenue through market transactions and the sale of green certificates.
The reason for saying that 2019 will usher in a new era is that most new photovoltaic projects will need state subsidies before 2019. After 2019, most new photovoltaic projects will no longer need state subsidies. From relying on subsidies to relying on its own value, photovoltaic power generation will start the most important transformation in 2019.
A clean break with subsidies is a foregone conclusion
By now, the coming of affordable Internet access has become a consensus. But does the advent of affordable Internet access mean that photovoltaic subsidies are all but gone? The answer is no.
In an official interpretation of the notice, the national energy administration said the current unsubsidized Internet access program is mainly carried out in areas with superior resources and a guaranteed market. At the same time, in areas where it is not possible to access the Internet without subsidies, construction will continue to be organized according to the policy and management requirements of competitive allocation projects issued by the national energy administration, but these projects will also have to significantly reduce the level of electricity price through competition to reduce the intensity of electricity subsidy.
In other words, only some regions have access to the Internet at affordable prices, and the nea will still consider subsidies for those regions that are pushing ahead with unsubsidized projects for the time being. But the current state of the industry suggests that the subsidy will be phased out over the next few years.
In general, although the photovoltaic subsidy is on the decline, it is still not ready to withdraw completely. In any case, the time is drawing near when photovoltaic power will finally be free of subsidies.
On the other hand, it's probably the most important aspect. The arrears of photovoltaic subsidies have been at stake. The primary goal now is to control the output of subsidies so as to alleviate the problem of subsidy arrears. According to the "531" policy, in order to control the total output of subsidies, the number of projects receiving state subsidies in the future will only decrease.
The size of the cake will be determined by it
At present, despite the baptism of the "531" policy, the new installed pv capacity in 2018 will also reach about 40GW, which is still a figure that exceeds expectations. Perhaps many people will be curious, in the formal entry into the affordable Internet era in 2019, photovoltaic installed capacity will reach how much? 30 gw? 40 gw? In other words, how big is the solar market pie in 2019? This seems to be a problem that no one can say for sure.
Unlike previous years, the category of photovoltaic projects will change dramatically in 2019. In the future, it doesn't matter whether a project is a distributed project or a centralized power station. What matters is whether the project is subsidized or not. In 2019, there will be two major categories: non-subsidized programs and subsidized programs. The size of the pv market in 2019 depends on the size of unsubsidized projects and subsidized projects.
It is almost certain that subsidies will get smaller as a result of problems such as delayed payments and the availability of affordable Internet access. Because the problem of subsidy arrears can only be solved when there are subsidy programs that are getting smaller and smaller; Only when there are fewer and fewer subsidy programs can the nationwide affordable Internet access be realized step by step. Even to promote unsubsidized programs, the size of subsidized programs must be reduced.
Although unsubsidized programs will get the biggest boost and their non-technical costs are expected to be reduced, the profitability of unsubsidized programs remains a problem relative to subsidized programs. Therefore, photovoltaic enterprises will be more inclined to strive for subsidy projects when they have a choice.
The reduction in the size of subsidized programs will intensify industrial competition, and only a small number of companies will end up with subsidized programs. Most companies that do not receive subsidies have no choice but to switch to unsubsidized programs. Only when most enterprises are allowed to lay out unsubsidized projects, can the initiative of enterprises be successfully mobilized and the development of unsubsidized projects be promoted. This is also the relationship between the reduction of the scale of subsidized projects and the promotion of non-subsidized projects.
To sum up, in the current market environment, the scale of subsidy programs must be reduced. So the size of the pv market in 2019 depends on the progress of unsubsidized projects.
How big will the unsubsidised programme be in 2019? The author thinks this basically sees the rate of return that does not have subsidy project. Although the new circular requires local governments, power grids and Banks to overcome all the blockages on the affordable Internet.
If the "notice" can be perfectly implemented and implemented, there will be great potential for unsubsidized projects, and the scale of the photovoltaic market will still be large in 2019. However, the reality is quite clear. If the implementation of the "notice" is not effective and some policies are not implemented, the benefits of unsubsidized projects will be very low and it will be difficult to push forward.
Overall, the pv market in 2019 can only count on the size of unsubsidized projects, but the size of unsubsidized projects depends on whether the newly issued notice is implemented. So do you have an idea of how big the cake will be in 2019?
Tags: pv without subsidy affordable Internet access
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